Pennsylvania is, in many ways, the be-all, and end-all for the 2024 presidential election. Pennsylvania voters have an 80% success rate, having correctly voted for the nationwide winner in 47 out of 59 elections. Its political demographics continue to shift, forcing candidates to continue courting voters in this pivotal swing state.
According to Census data, around 50% of Pennsylvania voters are white without a bachelor’s degree, though this demographic used to make up around 70% of the Pennsylvania voter base back around 20 years ago.
The shifting demographics are tied to a decline in traditional manufacturing jobs, particularly in the industrial regions, and a spike in growth for jobs in education and technology in the state. So naturally, more people with college degrees moved into the state and started voting.
Pennsylvania has been tossed back and forth between Republicans and Democrats in the last two elections. As of Tuesday, former President Donald Trump is in the lead by about 0.2% in this key swing state, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll averages. He’s consistently been leading by just a hair since October 20th, but prior to that, hadn’t been ahead of Harris since she stepped into the race.
Pennsylvania hasn’t always been a swing state. Rewinding back to 2016, Trump beat the odds and was the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since 1988. But, before then, it had been won by Democrats for almost thirty years. Fast forward to 2020, Pennsylvania secured the White House for President Biden.
Why is Pennsylvania so instrumental in presidential elections?
Pennsylvania has 19 Electoral College votes, the most out of all the swing states. It’s also just always been the center of the action.
Pennsylvania hosted the Continental Congress in the 1770s and was the final state to approve the Declaration of Independence.
With its diverse population and mix of urban, suburban and rural areas, experts have called it somewhat of a microcosm of national political trends.
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